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Should a meaningful decline materialize in October it is likely to be an excellent buying opportunity, especially for depressed technology and small-cap shares. In the chart below the 30 trading days before and after the last 92 Fed meetings back to March are graphed.
Note how past down announcement days have, on average, enjoyed the best gains over the next 30 trading days. Of the 42 down announcement days, the following day was down 23 times All 92 announcement days have averaged 0. DJIA was up nearly 3.
What's Inside "Stock Trader's Almanac "? | Market Wrap with Moe
Small-caps outperforming large-caps recently is not unusual and they did so again today. However, the second half of September has historically been weaker than the first half.
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End-of-quarter portfolio restructuring, and window dressing can amplify the impacts of any negative headlines. However, the week has suffered several sizable losses. The worst loss followed the September 11 terrorist attacks in The overall track record is 81 up days and 69 down days with a bearish average loss of 0. The worst Friday 13th loss was 6.
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Depending on which metric chosen, November is either the worst or in a virtual tie for worst month for Friday 13th. October has a similar average loss, but with two additional up days.
June is the best month for Friday 13th, up 11 times in 13 with an average gain of 0. Click here for full size image.here
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October could likely see a retest of with the support level that was held in June also being in play. The Almanac is an extremely valuable and unique reference work providing traders and investors with the strategies, methods and data to tackle the markets throughout the year. It is the one essential book for the serious trader or investor. The Almanac consists of four main sections: 1.
In , after a dreadful start, the S. In two of the four years since when the January decline was greater than 6 percent, the index ended the year with a gain. That has not curbed popular demand for Mr.
He has been deluged with media requests this week and has been making television appearances talking about the almanac and the January barometer. Most likely for evolutionary reasons, the human mind looks for patterns, and it is uncomfortable with randomness. Over the last two and a half years, the oil industry experienced its deepest downturn since at least the s.
Stock Trader’s Almanac
People have an irrational belief in them. Some, like the mathematician and quantitative hedge fund manager James Simons, do seem to have found such patterns, and Forbes estimates Mr. But as far as is known, his formulas cannot be reduced to a single catchy sentence. Even Mr. Hirsch does not rely entirely on the January barometer, which he said was just one of many technical and fundamental factors he takes into consideration when making investment decisions.